Friday Night Logue: What’s Wrong With Jacksonville Offense?

Welcome to the second edition of the Friday Night Logue!

We’re here to understand why the Jaguars are bad at football, especially why the Jaguars are bad on offense despite having a very talented quarterback under center.

Everyone knows that teams have a better chance of scoring and winning, with a high third-party conversion rate. Moving the chains is the key to the game. It also tends to be easier to convert on the third try when players don’t have to run that far to the first marker.

That said, the cause of Jacksonville’s offensive woes is not hard to find. He ranks 28th for third down conversion rate (31.8%) and 30th for first downs won (32) this season, largely because he also ranks 30th for average yardage for the third tries (8.4, according to Sharp Football Stats).

The reason the Jaguars average so many yards to go on the third down is due to poor performance in the first downs: he ranks 30th in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings for offensive efficiency on the first down and 32nd on the second trial. According to Sharp, he ranks 26th for success rate on first try and 29th on second try.

Rushing to the first dips is usually overestimated. #Analytics tell us it’s more efficient for teams to pass, especially with the playing action, on first and second down. That tends to be true, but not for Jacksonville so far this season.

As can be seen from the table above, the Jaguars are average to above average in terms of early descent precipitation efficiency, but rank second in each pass category at the start of descent.

So Jacksonville’s offense struggled in large part because of down passes. We have that.

Why those early passes fail is a question with limitless answers, including drops by receivers, blocks blown by pass protectors, questionable play calls and an erratic quarterback, not to mention tough opposing defenses. , inconsistent weather conditions, young people on the team, etc., etc.

It’s important to recognize that there isn’t just one reason, but if there’s one problem that popped up more than the others, it’s probably quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s play.

Yes, Lawrence has shown flashes of outrageous talent and a deep understanding of what is going on in front of him. In fact, his mental performance to start his career has easily been the most impressive and promising part of his game to date. From acknowledging cover to RPO decisions to putting pass protection in place, Lawrence rarely has a mental hiccup and it’s amazing how advanced his footballing spirit is so early in his career.

But when it comes time to deliver the football, Lawrence looks a little more human, otherwise too much Human. Of the 35 quarterbacks qualified, he ranks in the bottom five in target percentage, yards per attempt and pass score by Sports Info Solutions. To be fair: Its 10.0 average planned aerial work sites rank second, and its expected completion percentage of 62.5 ranks fifth according to Next Generation stats, so its inefficiencies are big. part the result of difficult throws.

But when we look at shorter throws (less than ten yards to be exact) on those aforementioned early passes, Lawrence’s effectiveness remains low. 87.5% of his 35 assists on such plays were deemed catchable by SIS – which doesn’t sound too bad until you realize he ranks 31st out of 33 quarterbacks, while Jameis Winston is the one of four quarters with a 100% catchable ball rate over 20+ passes. attempts. (Lawrence was also pressured on just 18.9% of those shots, which ranks sixth.)

Listen to the music!

Not all clips are unattainable short throws at first, but they are all relatively short passes that could have been picked up with better precision, although the receiver was to blame for a few of them as well. It might sound picky and maybe a little harsh, but put simply, these are examples of a top pick in the overall draft that doesn’t make it easy for his receivers.

Lawrence’s deep throws and third falls are another story for another day. In those areas, he always sees what he can and can’t do, and it usually ends in throws that take your breath away or make you shake your head (or both). But before Lawrence’s speech focuses on the processes and outcomes of these big boy throws, it should be known that there are more urgent areas that need to be cleaned up first. discs.

It’s easy to get caught up in the throws he does that only a few other people on the planet can attempt, but maybe we need to focus more on the throws than a lot of people on the planet. canattempt during Lawrence’s analysis. Or maybe we’re in the over-the-top part of the schedule and mid-season Lawrence will be stuck in Game 6 Klay for good. Either way: It’s important to remember that while this team will go as far as Lawrence takes, they’ll sink as far as Lawrence allows.

other thoughts

-Yes, Darrell Bevell could do a better job with the situational playcall- but the overall structure of the offense isn’t going to change. The average depth of the Lawrence target is high because the average depth of the route of the receivers is high. The Jaguars should run the ball more, but unless Bevell suddenly calls for much shorter concepts of play, it will mostly be on Lawrence’s shoulders to work on his precision and aggression if the offense is to reach its potential in its current form. , especially since the screens and RPOs that replace fast-paced play in Jacksonville’s offense have been largely ineffective.

-Shaq Quarterman played a career-high 29% of shots last Sunday according to analysis of John’s Week 2 shots – maybe the coaching staff saw enough of Damien Wilson after allowing a catch of Noah Fant, a broken tackle and a touchdown early in the third quarter. I’m as interested as the rest of Jacksonville in the safety rotation between Andrew Wingard, Andre Cisco and Rudy Ford, but linebacker Mike could be another job to watch.

-It’s time for the Jaguars to have a takeout. I’m betting on Shaq Griffin to get his first Jaguar this week.

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